New England epidemic of 1616–1619

An unidentified epidemic begins devastating Indigenous communities in coastal New England

The much-repeated 90% figure is the top of a range whose own authors admit has no reliable numerator or denominator.

Around 1616, with no starting day

Retrospective accounts indicate that one or more severe epidemics began among Indigenous communities in coastal New England around 1616. No source identifies a particular starting day, month, or village with confidence.

The best-known affected area ran through Wampanoag and neighbouring communities in southern coastal New England, and Patuxet — around present-day Plymouth Harbor — was severely depopulated. What later observers described as one catastrophe may have been several overlapping or successive outbreaks.

Symptoms without a diagnosis

Surviving descriptions mention fever, headache, nosebleeds, jaundice, and skin lesions. These sparse reports have produced numerous proposed diagnoses rather than a settled identification.

Leptospirosis with Weil syndrome is one published proposal; its authors, John S. Marr and John T. Cathey, explicitly described it as a hypothesis rather than a definite diagnosis, and other authorities have argued for smallpox or other infections. Importation of an Old World infection is plausible, but the organism, vessel, reservoir, and route remain unproved.

What the numbers can and cannot bear

Published mortality estimates run from about one-third to as high as 90% in affected local populations, and they lack reliable numerators and denominators. Salisbury's figures put the pre-epidemic Wampanoag population at 21,000 to 24,000 and Patuxet at about 2,000.

John Smith's later account described successive plagues extending nearly 200 miles along the coast and about 15 miles inland.

In 1619 Thomas Dermer reported finding settlements that had been populous a few years earlier standing empty.

Sources

Researched 24 Aug 2026 5 sources not yet audited Date disputed

How this was checked

Researched from the web into a fact sheet and rewritten from that sheet. This article has not yet had an independent model audit. How the pipeline works →

Date disputed. Sources disagree; the research places it at ~1616.

What the sources leave uncertain

The beginning date is approximate and reconstructed retrospectively; no contemporary record fixes an onset day or even a secure onset season in 1616.
The disease remains unidentified. Leptospirosis with Weil syndrome is a published hypothesis, while other authorities have argued for smallpox or other infections.
The episode may have consisted of several overlapping or successive outbreaks rather than one continuously spreading epidemic.
Mortality estimates vary from one-third to 90% and lack reliable population denominators; 90% is an upper local estimate, not a demonstrated rate for every coastal Indigenous people.